All that has been solved. By sacking Mahathir as a party member, Muhyiddin becomes acting party chairman while still party president, effectively rendering himself untouchable.
But this drastic action also means any chance of Muhyiddin and Mahathir reconciling politically is close to zero, something supporters of both camps wanted.
MAHATHIR’S OPTIONS
Believe it or not, the sacking is not a knock-out for Mahathir. Mahathir has options.
First, he can appeal to the Registrar of Societies (ROS). Malaysian political parties, unlike most countries, are highly regulated.
All key changes to party leadership requires approval from this government department. If the ROS does not sanction the sacking, then, like a court ruling, the sacking never happened legally.
ut this option may be ruled out when the ROS had issued a letter in May to Mahathir, indicating acknowledgment that his resignation from the party chairmanship would be effective immediately. Mahathir has rejected this decision and has signalled he intends to challenge it in court.
Second, Mahathir can sue the ROS and ask for a judicial review through the courts if ROS accepts the cessation of Mahathir’s Bersatu membership. If the High Court accepts the case should be opened, the sacking could be held in abeyance until the courts decide. This will take months, effectively prolonging the instability in Bersatu.
This is, however, a high-risk strategy. If the courts were to get involved, the crucial meeting of the Bersatu Supreme Council meeting back in February holds huge significance.
But there are two versions of this meeting. The first version says a decision was made to leave PH and form a new coalition with UMNO and PAS.
The second version says the Bersatu Supreme Council left the final decision to Mahathir to decide alone. This meeting was recorded clandestinely and portions of it were released over the Internet two weeks ago. One snippet has Muhyiddin proposing that the final decision - to leave or no leave PH - be left to Mahathir.
This is important because Muhyiddin’s supporters have consistently said there was consensus over the decision taken to leave PH and Muhyiddin’s move to set up the Perikatan Nasional was simply to carry out the wishes of the party, in contrast to the narrative from Mahathir supporters that Muhyiddin had taken unilateral action and gone against Mahathir’s expressed wishes.
Third, Mahathir can openly rally ordinary Bersatu members and call for a special meeting of the Bersatu Supreme Council, under Article 16.2 of Bersatu’s party constitution which provides for the chairman to call a Supreme Council meeting
If he can get a quorum for this meeting, the Supreme Council can move to sack Muhyiddin from the party, and Mahathir’s faction can assume total control of the party again.
Fourth, and this is unlikely, Mahathir can split the party by forming a new party and inviting Bersatu Members of Parliaments and members to defect, thus fatally weakening Bersatu.
But this requires time and Mahathir’s current deadline is July when Parliament will sit again.
There are brewing concerns Mahathir plans to use that session to depose Muhyiddin by tabling and passing a successful vote of no-confidence, forcing Muhyiddin to resign. This will be followed by a swift vote of confidence in Mahathir, paving the way for him to be appointed prime minister again.
No matter how you look at it, Mahathir remains a major thorn in Muhyiddin’s side. The nonagenarian will accept nothing less than Muhyiddin stepping aside and allowing him to step back into the driver’s seat.
THE WIDER PICTURE: WHO ELSE BENEFITS FROM THE DRAMA
In one of the biggest ironies of Malaysian politics at this moment, the biggest winner in this conflict is Najib Razak.
Najib has been mocking Mahathir (and PKR) relentlessly on social media since late February. Within minutes of Mahathir’s sacking, he posted on Facebook: “Dengar kata ada orang dipecat?” (Heard someone just got sacked?). This post alone has generated 180,000 likes and more than 13,000 shares.
Najib has managed to retain huge mindshare with Malaysians through social media and remains a major political player. Among PN politicians, he has the largest social media following and, in fact, a few million followers more than Muhyiddin.
The amount of political sway he possesses is demonstrated in the fact that his son Nizar Najib is the leading contender UMNO is considering nominating as candidate for the upcoming Chini by-election in July.
This also suggests the 1MDB corruption charges he currently faces has been discounted by the UMNO leadership and they expect he will eventually be acquitted.
I also would not rule out Najib making a political comeback at some point if UMNO remains in power, as remarkable as the premise is.
The other big winner is Anwar Ibrahim. Anwar is still reeling from Azmin Ali’s exit from PKR to support Muhyiddin and is trying to consolidate the party.
The good news is Azmin’s exit has allowed two prominent PKR leaders, Rafizi Ramli and Nurul Izzar, who had been sidelined by Azmin’s faction to play more active roles again in PKR. Rafizi and Nurul are popular with younger Malaysians and they are expected to boost PKR’s popularity.
HOW MALAYSIANS ARE REACTING
At the end of the day, the question that needs to be asked is this: Do ordinary Malaysians care about all this drama? I would suggest not.
Malaysia is just starting to emerge from the COVID-19 restrictions and people are worried about adjusting back to work.
The lockdown has also impacted the most important religious holiday, Hari Raya Aidilfitri, which was celebrated last week.Source: CNA/sl
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