KUCHING: Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) can definitely return to power in the 12th state election next month as the opposition parties in Sarawak are highly divided.
Political analyst Professor James Chin from the University of Tasmania's Asia Institute said the state ruling coalition is also on track to win 72 out of the 82 state seats.
He predicted that the on-going tussle between Sarawak Pakatan Harapan, especially DAP, and Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB) led by the Datuk Seri Wong Soon Koh, would result in three-cornered or multi-cornered fights in some seats.
This, he said, would be advantageous to GPS.
"GPS can achieve a landslide victory in the state polls as the opposition in Sarawak is currently highly divided and I don't think they can reconcile at the very last minute.
"DAP doesn't trust PSB and is worried that the latter would join GPS after winning a significant number of seats in the election. This is because (PSB's) Wong has always been an ally of Sarawak BN or GPS," he told the New Straits Times.
Apart from that, Chin said Sarawak PKR doesn't have a strong leader, which is crucial for any political party in an election, while Parti Amanah Negara has little ground machinery in Sarawak.
He said GPS is holding all the cards now as it is difficult for the opposition parties to come together before the state polls.
He added that though DAP might not be doing as well as in the previous election, they still can win some seats.
As such, he said, the possibility of Sarawak returning to the "Dark Ages" when there was no opposition in the State Legislative Assembly, as claimed by DAP, won't happen.
Meanwhile, Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Dr Oh Ei Sun also agreed that GPS will win handsomely.
However, it remains to be seen if it can replicate the last state election result in 2016.
He said its main competitor appears to be PSB since PKR essentially is dissipating and DAP is engrossed in internal fights.
"I think GPS will return to power. It's just a question of the size of their majority. Sarawak United People's Party (SUPP) would encounter some challenges mainly from PSB and DAP. Hence, it would be a tall order to replicate those results in the last state polls."
Oh said it mostly depends on SUPP's performance whether the GPS can win more than 72 seats, as the other component parties are likely to retain their respective seats.
Besides, he said, whenever the voter turnout is low, it is most advantageous for parties with effective election machineries which can mobilise their supporters to go out to vote and thereby clinch the victory.
Universiti Malaya's Professor Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said it was still premature to predict if GPS, under the leadership of the Chief Minister Tan Sri Abang Johari Openg can do better than the previous state polls.
"It is too early to tell if GPS can break the record of the late Tan Sri Adenan Satem's landslide victory (winning 72 seats) in the 2016 state polls. We can only have a clearer picture after we enter the campaign period."
GPS, said Awang Azman, should not be too comfortable and confident about winning the election but instead must put more effort into encouraging voters to go out and cast their votes on polling day.
"GPS must also ensure there will be no internal conflicts among their leaders, members and partners as to avoid sabotage, protest, and frustration among the grassroots supporters. Otherwise, it would reduce the majority and votes," he said.
The Election Commission announced that the 12th Sarawak election will be held on Dec 18 while nomination for the polls will be on Dec 6 and early voting on Dec 14.
The EC could not hold the state election after the tenure of the State Legislative Assembly ended on June 6 this year because of the nationwide state of emergency in force at that time.
Yang di-Pertuan Agong Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri'ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah proclaimed the state of emergency on Jan 11 to curb the spread of Covid-19.
When the nationwide emergency ended on Aug 1, the king proclaimed a state of emergency for Sarawak from Aug 2 to Feb 2, 2022. The emergency was lifted on Nov 3, thus enabling the EC to hold the Sarawak state election.
EC Chairman Datuk Abdul Ghani Salleh said a total of 82 seats are up for grabs in the state election, with the campaign period set for only 12 days from after the nomination day on Dec 6 until 11.59pm on Dec 17.
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